Rational Will

1.0

Your Swiss Army Knife to Decision Analysis

Video Demonstration for Rational Will

Dilemma? Enter Rational Will

Be in charge of your life.

Make Rational Decision on everyday problems. Based on your attitude towards risk, get a policy from a Decision Tree and know what action to take at what situation; Always have your plan-B ready before jumping to an action; be brave with your life.

Policy_ Tree

Recognize what really matters.

It is not worth trying to make everything perfect. Rather focus on and optimize the factors that matter most. Thru an exhaustive Sensitivity Analysis, see, how significantly your decision can change by changing a factor in your context. (What-If Analysis )

Sensitivity_ Analysis

Look before you leap - see the spectrum of "things can happen"

One shouldn't act without first considering the possible consequences or dangers. When you have a probability distribution, Monte Carlo Simulation is performed automatically without asking you anything to configure. Whenever you have uncertainty, the Risk Profile chart is generated for you to visualize the complete possibilities of uncertain events and realize what can go wrong. Get prepared accordingly.

In the same Risk Profile chart, view Cumulative Probability Distribution and Survival Function charts for getting different perspectives of the scenarios.

Monte_ Carlo_ Simulation

Be aware of your Risks (things go wrong).

Realize the risks in any action you take. Observe a plethora of risk metric charts including Value at Risk, Entropy, Baumol's Risk measure, Domar and Musgrave Risk Index, Roy's safety first rule, Shortfall VaR, Variance, Standard Deviation etc.

Never regret an action again.

Using the MiniMax Regret analysis, choose an action that minimizes the maximum amount of regret. See, at most how much you can regret an opportunity if you choose an action.

Minimax_ Regret

Express your payoff by multi-criteria attributes.

You can model Rewards at an option or an event with Multiple-criteria Utilities. Rational Will Objectives can encapsulate rich information, like the attribute type of the objective. For example, some attributes can be Boolean Type (yes/no or true/false), some of them can be a Subjective type, Number type, or Categorical. Monetary type objective can be used to calculate Net Present Value using an interest rate.

multi_objective_utility

Identify your objectives in a natural way

Rational will is equipped with an intuitive wizard that follows a regular thinking pattern and captures your objective.

Objective_ Wizard

Prioritize and quantify your objectives by accepting the trade-off.

Not everything has the same importance to you. Prioritize your objectives by trading one objective over another using the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Rational will uses Eigenvalues and eigenvectors for calculating priorities from Pairwise Comparisons.

Analytic_ Hierarchy_ Process

Save yourself from doing misjudgment.

When performing a pairwise comparison, you can misjudge 2 factors by not being consistent. Enforce Transitivity Rule and save you from doing such mistakes. Transitivity rule is a quality of judgment. One big benefit of enforcing the transitivity rule is that the number of pair comparison will be dramatically reduced. More technically speaking, the number of Pair Comparison will be reduced to N -1, where, without transitivity rule, the number of pairwise comparisons is ½ * N * (N - 1). That can be a huge time saver for you.

Get a feedback on how consistent you are.

Notice that the Consistency Ratio is also calculated in a pairwise comparison. The higher the number is, the more inconsistent you are.

Incorporate your attitude:

The Rational Will computes a strategy based on your Attitude. If you acknowledge as a realist rational person, the Von Neumann–Morgenstern utility theorem - Maximize Expected Utility approach will be used. If you are a very pessimist person who wants to avoid all kind of risks, you can choose LexiMin approach. If you regret opportunities, then the Minimax Regret approach is available for you. Hurwicz’s Optimism Pessimism rule is also available along with various customizations.

Extensive modeling of a Utility function.

Rational Will has an extensive coverage on Von Neumann–Morgenstern Utility Theorem. Model your Utility function as many ways as possible using our rich visual drag and move chart editor. You can directly use the Exponential Utility Function, or Bernoulli Utility Function as well. Finally, use custom expressions if any of the built-in models won't suit your taste.

Various_ Utility_ Functions

Know Thyself: Elicit your attitude towards risk.

If you are not sure about your utility function, a Certainty Equivalent based Game can be offered to you. While you play the game, the 'Rational Will' will infer your Utility Function using the concept from Behavioral Economics.

Certainty_ Equivalent_ Game_ Play

Model your uncertainties.

Modeling Probability Distribution with an option to truncate.

You can model from a simple to a very complex probability distribution for any variable. You can even use custom expressions like f(x) to model your custom distribution.

Modeling_ Probability_ Distribution

Probability_ Distribution_in_a_ Decision_ Tree

Mutually Non Exclusive Chances

You can model uncertain chances where both of them can happen at the same time.

Mutually_non_exclusive_chance_events

Do not know the probabilities? No worries.

In real life, it is really not feasible to probabilities of uncertainties. Rational Will can infer the unknown probabilities by applying the Principle of Insufficient Reasons.

Update your beliefs by Experimentation.

Whenever you model an uncertainty, you can update your beliefs based on experimentation and observations. A built-in Bayesian Inference tool called Diachronic Interpretation is ready for you to help you elicit the probabilities whenever you need.

Diachronic_ Interpretation_ Main

Stochastic Dominance: (Up to the 3rd order).

When you compare uncertain options, Stochastic Dominance measure should be considered to rank the uncertain options. 'Rational Will' can calculate Stochastic Dominance up to the 3rd Order. Whenever a model contains Uncertainty, the stochastic dominance is calculated in the Result Panel.

Stochastic_ Dominance_and_ Value_of_ Information

Repeatable Situations? Know what action to perform in what situation.

Using Markov Decision Process, model your repeatable situations and get a policy of actions to do in a given situation.

Finally, the Markov Decision Process Policy Graph is automatically created for you from the model you created.

Markov_ Decision_ Process

Forecast what can happen next from a repeatable situation.

Again, from a repeatable situation, using a Markov Chain, forecast the next state.

Markov_ Decision_ Process

List Pros and Cons efficiently using intelligent guidance

Even, when you are analyzing simple Pros and Cons, using the Heuristic Analysis, get the guidance about which cons should not be included, as sounds like it is just a missing Pro, not really a Con.

Heuristic_ Analysis

Jot down your problem quickly using an Influence Diagram.

Calculate Benefit to Cost ratio easily with Net Present Value.

benefit_to_cost_ratio

Finally, it is a deep realization of the Normative Decision Theories.

Rational Will is a decision-making software realizing the Normative Decision Theories. Rational will incorporates various decision analysis methods like Decision Tree, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Decision Matrix, Markov Decision Process, Influence Diagram and Pros Cons Analysis.

Rational_ Will_ Main_ Screen

Check out our latest blog posts

Why care about Rational Decision Making?

Explaining the reasons why someone should care about making rational decisions. ...More

Supported Environments

Operating System

Windows 7, Windows 8-8.1, Windows 10

Microsoft .NET Framework

4.5 or later