Dilemma? Enter Rational Will and make rational decisions. Rational Will is a set of Decision-making tools that comes with Decision Tree, Analytic Hierarchy Process, Decision Matrix, Markov Decision Process, Markov Chain, Influence Diagram, and Pros Cons Analysis. Also, it comes with a Bayesian Inference based experimentation tool.
Based on your attitude towards risk, get a policy from a Decision Tree and know what action to take at what situation; Always have your plan-B ready before jumping to an action; Use multi-criteria attributes for Pay off. Use advanced utility functions, various metric analysis like Stochastic Dominance, Value at Risk, etc. Super intuitive GUI, so no need to spend time learning through documentation, rather jump-start using the rich User Interface.
You can model Rewards at an option or an event with Multiple-criteria Utilities. Rational Will Objectives can encapsulate rich information, like the attribute type of the objective. For example, some attributes can be Boolean Type (yes/no or true/false); some of them can be a Subjective type, Number type, or Categorical. Monetary type objectives can be used to calculate Net Present Value using an interest rate.
It is not worth trying to make everything perfect. Rather focus on and optimize the factors that matter most. Thru an exhaustive Sensitivity Analysis, see, how significantly your decision can change by changing a factor in your context. (What-If Analysis )
When you have a probability distribution, Monte Carlo Simulation is performed automatically without asking you anything to configure. Whenever you have uncertainty, the Risk Profile chart is generated for you to visualize the complete possibilities of uncertain events and realize what can go wrong. Get prepared accordingly.
In the same Risk Profile chart, view Cumulative Probability Distribution and Survival Function charts for getting different perspectives of the scenarios.
Realize the risks in any action you take. Observe a plethora of risk metric charts including Value at Risk, Entropy, Baumol's Risk measure, Domar and Musgrave Risk Index, Roy's safety first rule, Shortfall VaR, Variance, Standard Deviation, etc.
Try the analytic hierarchy process feature, and you will be amazed. The advanced guided wizard user interface is offered to model the Analytic Hierarchy Process. Rational will uses Eigenvalues and eigenvectors for calculating priorities from Pairwise Comparisons.
When performing a pairwise comparison, you can misjudge 2 factors by not being consistent. Enforce the Transitivity Rule and save you from doing such mistakes. Transitivity rule is a quality of judgment. One big benefit of enforcing the transitivity rule is that the number of pair comparison will be dramatically reduced. More technically speaking, the number of Pair comparisons will be reduced to N -1, where, without transitivity rule, the number of pairwise comparisons is ½ * N * (N - 1). That can be a huge time-saver for you.
Consistency Ratio is also calculated and displayed in a pairwise comparison view. The higher the number is, the more inconsistent you are.
The Rational Will computes a strategy based on your attitude. If you acknowledge as a realist rational person, the Von Neumann–Morgenstern utility theorem - Maximize Expected Utility approach will be used. If you are a very pessimist person who wants to avoid all kinds of risks, you can choose the LexiMin approach. If you regret opportunities, then the Minimax Regret approach is available for you. Hurwicz’s Optimism Pessimism rule is also available along with various customizations.
Rational Will has extensive coverage on Von Neumann–Morgenstern Utility Theorem. Model your Utility function as many ways as possible using our rich visual drag and move chart editor. You can directly use the Exponential Utility Function, or Bernoulli Utility Function as well. Finally, use custom expressions if any of the built-in models won't suit your taste.
If you are not sure about your utility function, a Certainty Equivalent based Game can be offered to you. While you play the game, the 'Rational Will' will infer your Utility Function using the concept from Behavioral Economics.
You can model from a simple to a very complex probability distribution for any variable. You can even use custom expressions like f(x) to model your custom distribution.
You can model uncertain chances where both of them can happen at the same time.
In real life, it is really not feasible to probabilities of uncertainties. Rational Will can infer the unknown probabilities by applying the Principle of Insufficient Reasons.
Whenever you model uncertainty, you can update your beliefs based on experimentation and observations. A built-in Bayesian Inference tool called Diachronic Interpretation is ready for you to help you elicit the probabilities whenever you need it.
When you compare random variables, Stochastic Dominance measures should be considered to rank the variables. 'Rational Will' can calculate Stochastic Dominance up to the 3rd Order. Whenever a model contains uncertainty, the stochastic dominance is calculated in the Result Panel.
Using Markov Decision Process, model your repeatable situations and get a policy of actions to do in a given situation.
Finally, the Markov Decision Process Policy Graph is automatically created for you from the model you created.
Jot down your problem quickly using an Influence Diagram.
The rational will is equipped with an intuitive wizard that follows a regular thinking pattern and captures your objective.
You may notice that we offer some stand-alone decision analysis software, like Decision Tree Analyzer, Markov Decision Process, Analytic Hierarchy Process, etc. If you get Rational Will, then you will get all of them into a single software, which is definitely a streamlined user experience. You won't have to get them separately anymore.
Windows 7, Windows 8-8.1, Windows 10
4.5 or later