Mutually Non Exclusive Hypotheses

In Bayesian Inference, you can have a set of hypotheses and not necessarily they need to be mutually exclusive. For example, say, your car is not starting. You have a hypothesis that,

A) The battery is down
B) The Fuel is stolen
C) Spark Plug is damaged
D) Fuel is run out.

It is possible that both Fuels is stolen and the battery is down. But, it is highly unlikely that both "battery is down" and "spark plug is damaged", so maybe you can say, hypothesis A and hypothesis C is mutually exclusive, but hypothesis B is not mutually exclusive. Also, The hypothesis "Fuel is Stolen" and "Fuel is run out" - they must be mutually exclusive, right? You can model such a set of hypotheses as shown below.


Once you lock the "Lock Button", it will look like this.


Last updated on Aug 25, 2018